Bitcoin is a Scam

Great article here about bitcoin price fixing. The article points out this valuation using the size of the bitcoin economy and a reasonable monetary velocity is at most $4 per bitcoin. “: As pointed out by Jon Matonis and others, Automattic’s WordPress bitcoin revenue turned out to be not representative. The BitPay clearinghouse has an […]

Widowmaker Trade Setup: QE taper begins = Godzilla Bond Rally

Regular readers know how I consider trading the bond market in todays environment. I use the cash for clunkers bond trading model, where QE pulls forward sales of bonds which artificially depresses bond prices. Then when QE ends, there is a vaacuum of buyers, which then causes a huge rally in bond prices. Today is […]

How long can the rally in Steel last?

The tremendous rally in steel prices started back in June. Since June, cold rolled steel prices have jumped over 10%. A more remarkable jump happened in rebar prices – rebar has rallied 30%+ since June, and is at the highest price since the crash of 2008. Steel is a decent proxy for economic activity in […]

Not wanting Bad Investments does not equal Socialism

Matt Yglesias is having a problem with a column by Larry Summers: “He’s saying that in a low interest rate environment we dare not leave investment decisions up to the private sector, which is going to just blow the money on boondoggles and white elephants—the state needs to step in and plan the economy. Socialism, […]

Is lower Chinese Manufacturing all part of the Plan?

China released a survey of purchasing managers yesterday and Chinese manufacturing is at an 11 month low. From Bloomberg: “China’s manufacturing weakened by more than estimated in July, according to a preliminary survey of purchasing managers that casts further doubt on the government’s ability to meet its annual economic growth (CNGDPYOY) target. The reading of 47.7 for […]